Madison Square Garden

New York, NY

Night 1 of 2 · Show 1 of 2 · 2026/2027 NYE Run

Crowd vs the model. Pick 10 songs for Wed Dec 30 · voting closes 7:00 PM ET. Add your picks →

Song odds

Chance each song gets played at this show

1Free Played 20 of last 100 · last played Oct 11, 2 shows ago33%
28% chance each6 songs
1. 2Harry Hood Played 24 of last 100 · last Oct 928%
2. 3Back on the Train Played 17 of last 100 · last Oct 328%
3. 4Ghost Played 22 of last 100 · last Oct 928%
4. 5Wolfman's Brother Played 20 of last 100 · last Oct 1228%
5. 6The Moma Dance Played 18 of last 100 · last Oct 428%
6. 7Sand Played 22 of last 100 · last Oct 1128%
22% chance each6 songs
1. 8Light Played 18 of last 100 · last Oct 622%
2. 9Stash Played 18 of last 100 · last Oct 322%
3. 10A Wave of Hope Played 17 of last 100 · last Oct 222%
4. 11Carini Played 21 of last 100 · last Oct 922%
5. 12Possum Played 21 of last 100 · last Oct 1122%
6. 13What's Going Through Your Mind Played 20 of last 100 · last Oct 322%
20% chance each10 songs
1. 14Also Sprach Zarathustra Played 18 of last 100 · last Oct 620%
2. 15Life Saving Gun Played 16 of last 100 · last Oct 620%
3. 16Everything's Right Played 21 of last 100 · last Oct 1120%
4. 17Chalk Dust Torture Played 21 of last 100 · last Oct 920%
5. 18Character Zero Played 20 of last 100 · last Oct 1220%
6. 19First Tube Played 17 of last 100 · last Oct 620%
7. 20Kill Devil Falls Played 16 of last 100 · last Oct 720%
8. 21Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S. Played 16 of last 100 · last Oct 220%
9. 22Run Like an Antelope Played 19 of last 100 · last Oct 1220%
10. 23Bathtub Gin Played 16 of last 100 · last Oct 320%
18% chance each15 songs
1. 24No Men In No Man's Land Played 18 of last 100 · last Oct 1218%
2. 25Bouncing Around the Room Played 11 of last 100 · last Jul 2218%
3. 26Blaze On Played 19 of last 100 · last Oct 1218%
4. 27Tweezer Played 19 of last 100 · last Oct 918%
5. 28Roggae Played 11 of last 100 · last Oct 718%
6. 29Sigma Oasis Played 16 of last 100 · last Oct 418%
7. 30Oblivion Played 16 of last 100 · last Oct 218%
8. 31My Friend, My Friend Played 18 of last 100 · last Oct 1218%
9. 3246 Days Played 15 of last 100 · last Oct 618%
10. 33You Enjoy Myself Played 15 of last 100 · last Oct 418%
11. 34Theme from the Bottom Played 15 of last 100 · last Oct 1118%
12. 35Tube Played 15 of last 100 · last Oct 718%
13. 36Fuego Played 18 of last 100 · last Oct 1118%
14. 37Mike's Song Played 17 of last 100 · last Oct 1218%
15. 38Weekapaug Groove Played 17 of last 100 · last Oct 1218%

Generated setlist

A plausible setlist, not a prediction of order.

Set 1~80 min

Set 2~85 min

Encore~15 min

Open the setlist

2026 track record

42%

55 of 131 songs played were in our top 20. A gap-based baseline got 34% across the same 8 shows. Special shows are excluded.

How the odds are calculated

Every past show is paired with every song Phish had played before it, and a model (LightGBM, a kind of decision-tree ensemble) learns what tended to come before a song turning up. The strongest signal is the gap — shows since a song was last played. A song is about half as likely the night after it’s played and most likely four to eight shows later.

How often it’s been played lately, where the show sits in its run and tour, and how new the song is also count. A few rules go on top: a song already played earlier in a multi-night run drops to 2%, and Weekapaug Groove moves with Mike’s Song. The line under each song is its biggest single factor.

How accurate is it, honestly?

Tested on 200 past shows, 37% of the songs Phish actually played were in our top 20. A simple baseline built like Phish.net’s Trey’s Notebook — the most-played songs of the past year — got 31%. That test is a little flattering, and most of any night still goes uncalled: openers are hard, debuts can’t be predicted, and Halloween and New Year’s surprise sets aren’t attempted.

Every show from the fall tour on gets scored in public. See the track record.

Where the data comes from

Setlists, songs and venues come from the Phish.net API, courtesy of Phish.net and The Mockingbird Foundation. Song lengths come from Phish.in and are used to fit the generated setlist into realistic set times.

Each morning a job pulls any new shows, scores the last prediction against what was actually played, retrains the model and publishes fresh odds. Only Phish shows count — side projects are left out. Phish.net’s terms don’t allow republishing their data, so there’s no download here.